Tuesday, 25 November 2014



Disclaimer : This was sent to me by someone. I do not necessarily agree with this argument but this type of prediction about Japan  is becoming more frequent.  

My view is this : Japanese industry is still top notch. Japanese education is still top notch. Japanese society is very resilient. I will not dicount Japan yet. Japan has been in the "doldrums" for about 20 years now. But in that time, Toyota has become the No. 1 car manufacturer in the world.  Anyway here is the story:

Mighty Japan will soon fall like Sakura leaves, and Europe will be just like Disneyland for honeymooners, both no longer the superpowers that we once knew, all due to wrong policies that started less than 10 years back.

This is not a prediction, this is NOW.
Many things are wrong with Japan, not only is the thinning Young Generation less competitive, but they have become a nation of consumers rather than producers.
Japan is now World No. 1 in terms of public debt. Japan’s debt has reached ONE QUADRILLION yen (do you know how many zeros is that?).  Close to 11 trillion US dollars, or 11,000 billion US$, or 11,000,000,000,000 US$, a whopping 214% of the GDP. 

That is more than Zimbabwe or Greece. Last time we heard of “starving billionaires” in Zimbabwe, soon it will be Japan, because the yen is practically worth nothing.
And guess what, the current government led by Shinzo Abe keeps printing more money faster than the machine can print via QE (quantitative easing) which they learned from the US. They extend its already unprecedented target of expanding the monetary base by 60 to 70 trillion yen a year. I think we need to send our printers there to help them print more yen.
Abe simply wants to drive the yen to Zimbabwe dollar level so that Japan can compete with China and Korea, or to simply pay the bills. But alas, Abe is wrong. It’s not Japan’s products that are expensive, but we no longer see their appeal.
SONY, once Japan’s proud electronics powerhouse, has its net loss widened to 136 billion yen ($1.2 billion), Panasonic Corp posted net losses exceeding 750 billion yen ($7.4 billion) for the second straight year, Sharp plans a shake-up as loss widens to $5.35 billion….. And there are many more such examples.
While in China and South Korea all sectors are booming, Japan’s pie is getting smaller and smaller, and it is a wonder if they can still exist and survive.
It does not end here, when one country’s economy weakens, the same goes for the culture. Asia, once crazy about Japanese manga and animation, now flock to South Korean K Pop. Even Japanese teenagers go nuts over South Korea pop stars, leaving their own stars in the dust.
How about disasters like Fukushima? Japan is unwilling to reveal to the public and the world what’s going on in Sendai. How much nuclear waste has already leaked out to the seas and contaminated neighbouring countries like China, Korea or even US? There is a joke that Japan is so poor they now use DAISO tape to stop the leak.
With no clear income and extremely high public spending at home, Japan is a time bomb in Asia. There is almost NO solution for Japan at this hour. Abe tries all ways and means to bring money in e.g. Japan now officially waives visa requirements for visitors from Indonesia, Australia, China, Japan, South Korea and Russia beginning January 2015. Japan is raising their GST from 5% to 8%, and is learning from Singapore to open casinos for the masses.
Japan is doomed; they are just buying time with QE. The next generation will suffer from Abenomics. And who can save Japan when it implodes? The good friend USA?  America will think twice when bailing out Japan, as not only US itself is pretty broke, but bailing out Japan would drag the entire US economy down, again.
I foresee Japan collapsing before the end of the Obama administration. It looks like China won’t need to attack Japan after all, Japan will implode by itself sooner or later.

So if you see Japanese properties on sale in newspapers recently, some even priced better than Singapore properties, you might wonder, is it a good buy. Well, I think in two years, you can get them at half the price.

No comments: