S’gor re-election: Strategies to help BN win
DAP is the most rock solid party in Selangor. They recorded a perfect 100 percent success in the last general election, contesting 15 state assembly seats and winning all 15.
The DAP’s strength lies with the urban Chinese; not that I need to tell anyone this but you might like the visual (below) rendered by Ahmed Kamal for Politweet.
BELOW: Pakatan national support base
DAP’s urban Chinese vs Umno’s rural Malays
PAS and PKR both contested 21 DUN seats each in Selangor, with PAS victorious in 15 (success rate: 71 percent) and PKR securing 14 seats (success rate: two-thirds).
Umno managed to land one-thirds of the seats they contested, achieving a score of 12 out of 35.
Now have a look at the extent of Umno’s rural support. Staggering. Without doubt, Umno has cornered the market on rural voters nationally. Malangnya Umno Selangor agak lembab dan tiada wawasan.
BELOW: BN national support base
More of Ahmed’s infographics can be viewed @ http://infogr.am/The-Rural-Urban-Divide?src=web
MCA cooperated to create Chinese tsunami
In the last election, MCA put up 14 candidates and EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.was rejected by the Selangor voters.
It is impossible for MCA to ever win in Chinese-majority areas again. But even in areas where the Chinese make up around one-third of the electorate, these pengundi Cina will make sure to send MCA packing.
MCA’s utter failure in Selangor where they lost in all 14 out of 14 DUNs they contested is so shameful I dunno what to say … urm, padan muka kerana sanggup membiar Si Gunting tikam belakang BN.
BELOW: Parliament seats won by BN in GE13
Graphics credit: Politweet
Race matters most
If a re-election were to be held in Selangor, it is an absolute certainty that the DAP will maintain their status quo.
Their super majorities are giler. In fact, the Top Three biggest margins of victory belong to DAP.
- Damansara Utama: Yeo Bee Yin – majority 30,689 votes
- Subang Jaya: Hannah Yeoh – majority 28,069 votes
- Seri Kembangan: Ean Yong Hian Wah – majority 22,078 votes
The trio are evangelistas. Their electorates voted on the basis of race (all three are Chinese), religion (Christianity) and anti-establishment sentiments.
DAP’s position is unassailable. Most of their candidates sailed through with whopping majorities. Even Hannah Yeoh’s former Personal Assistant Rajiv Rishyakaran who stood, for the first time, in Bukit Gasing, Petaling Jaya Selatan obtained an astounding majority of 15,842.
As comparison, senior exco Elizabeth Wong who is a second-term PKR Adun got amajority of 17,200.
Selangor in GE13
Table of results – Rural, Semi-rural, Semi-urban, Urban areas
Table of results – Rural, Semi-rural, Semi-urban, Urban areas
DAP has hit the glass ceiling
What we can surmise from the data is that a snowflake has a far better chance in hell than the MCA at being able to wrest any urban seats away from the DAP.
However, at the same time, the DAP have also maxed out in Selangor. There are no more seats left for them to win unless they decide to encroach into those contested by PAS.
It is however a different story with Umno whose direct opponents are the Islamist party and PKR.
There is merit in the Chinese boast that they, i.e. Chinese voters, helped PAS to win a number of marginal seats the last round (5 May 2013) and propelling PAS to its best showing in mixed areas. In the past, PAS was only able to win in Melayu pekat areas and lacked popularity among a multiracial populace.
In a reelection, and if the Chinese pull back their support, then the PAS Selangor Aduns become the most vulnerable with having the slimmest majorities — see list below.
Aduns with shaky majorities are:
- Sabak: Sallehen Mukhyi (PAS) – majority 399
- Bukit Melawati: Jakiran Jacomah (Umno) – majority 806
- Ijok: Idris Ahmad (PKR) – majority 739
- Morib: Hasnul Baharuddin (PAS) – majority 766
- Tanjung Sepat: Mohd Haslin Hassan (PAS) – majority 682
Sallehen Mukhyi is the state exco in charge of Islam. His ward has one-fifth non-Malay voters (13% Chinese and 6% Indians). Previously, Sallehen’s seat in Sabak was held by Umno in 2008 and 2004.
Sabak is one example of a seat that Umno can snatch back from PAS given that the non-Malay voters are unhappy with JAIS while the Malay voters are unhappy over the Allah and Bible issues. Both sides (non-Malays and Malays) are unhappy with PAS’s handling of the religious controversies and this will cost Sellehen his support.
BELOW: Demographic profile of GE13 voters at federal level – 222 Parliament seats
Delineation weightage favours rural areas
From the Politweet diagrams above, you can see that rural Parliament seats number 125 whereas urban seats are only 43 while semi-urban ones are 54.
Although the figures refer to federal constituencies, the trend is nonetheless similar at state level, especially for the big states such as Sabah, Sarawak and Selangor included.
BN can resign themselves to the DAP monopolizing the urban areas and Pakatan should likewise resign themselves to Umno monopolizing the rural areas. Thus the battleground for Selangor redux will be the semi-rural / semi-urban DUNs.
Let’s look at some specifically.
(1) Kota Damansara & Semenyih
Umno was lucky to have won Kota Damansara against PSM president Dr Nasir Hashim who stood on a PKR ticket. Kota Damansara became a three-cornered fight when PAS entered the fray and caused split votes. PKR-PSM’s 14,860 votes plus PAS’s 7,312 votes tallied together was greater than the 16,387 votes for Umno.
With the benefit of hindsight, opposition supporters will not stumble another time. PAS cannot play the spoiler for a repeat performance in the event of a re-election.
TACTIC: BN must get PSM on their side
PSM has complained that they were sabotaged by those whom they considered a friend (see tweet screenshot above).
Dr Nasir in his speech at the PSM annual congress in June 2013 had complained that Pakatan backstabbed his party. He said: “We were bullied, promises to us were broken, and tackling our problems took a back seat [where Pakatan was concerned] …”
Given the bad blood and PSM’s sense of betrayal, BN should seriously make PSM an offer.
In Semenyih, PSM sec-gen S. Arutchelvan – contesting under his own party’s clenched fist symbol – had polled a respectable 5,568 votes. Semenyih was won by Umno with 17,616 votes while PKR garnered 13,471 votes. If there had been a straight fight, the votes for PSM+PKR added together are more than the votes collected by Umno.
Since a re-election in Selangor is very high stakes affair, BN should pull out all the stops to recover the crown jewel state so that oppressed Selangorians will no longer have to put up with Air Lombong being piped to our homes.
(2) Ijok & Kuala Kubu Baru
Ijok is one of the seats that MIC can win back from PKR.
This seat is so vulnerable that Khalid Ibrahim who was Adun from 2008 to 2013 did not care nor dare to defend it. Catching a glimpse of Khalid in Ijok is as rare as encountering a tenggiling in Bangsar or Nurul Izzah in Pantai Dalam.
Ijok has got 34 percent Indian voters. PKR managed to retain the seat in the last election only on a 739-vote majority. This thin edge can easily be reversed if there is a very small swing by Indian voters.
TACTIC: BN must get Hindraf to campaign for them
There are no permanent friends or foes in politics, correct?
ABOVE: Lee Kee Hiong and Hannah Yeoh are always hanging out together
Kuala Kubu Baru is another constituency with a significant number of Indian voters – 21 percent. Together with the 33 percent Malay voters, its non-Chinese electorate is more than half (54%).
During the last election, three independent candidates in Kuala Kubu Baru together polled a total of 475 votes. The number of spoilt votes was 390. Independent + spoilt votes = 865. The DAP’s majority in Kuala Kubu Baru was 1,702. Should there be no multi-cornered fights and if the number of protest votes can be reduced, then BN can be said to be merely lagging behind by some 800-plus votes.
There has been a recent report made to the MACC against the DAP Kuala Kubu Baru Adun Lee Kee Hiong - photo above, pictured with Hannah Yeoh – on allegations of corruption. See, ‘Dokumen Penyelewengan Adun Kuala Kubu Baharu Diserah Kepada SPRM‘ (mStar, 1 July 2014).
There is a question mark hanging over YB Lee. BN can shift the emotional climate and ground by putting up an Indian.
TACTIC: Give Kuala Kubu Baru to MIC or a Gerakan Indian to contest instead of MCA as at present
(3) Sg Pelek & Teluk Datuk
In the previous GE12 term (2008-2013), it was the undi ehsan from non-Chinese voters in the semi-rural areas that narrowly gave MCA their only two Selangor state seats in Kuala Kubu Baru and Sungai Pelek. But still, MCA lost these two last holdout seats subsequently in GE13.
Sungai Pelek currently has two-thirds (66%) non-Chinese voters (45% Malay + 21% Indian). Umno should contest this seat, not MCA.
Likewise in Teluk Datuk, non-Chinese voters make up almost half (49%) of the electorate. Teluk Datuk has 29 percent Malay and 20 percent Indian voters.
TACTIC: Do not let MCA ‘burn’ (read: waste) anymore BN seats
MCA are non-winnable candidates. Furthermore, the MCA – as evidenced by the behaviour of its backstabbing media – are actually campaigning for the DAP Christians.
Kalau MCA tanding, gerenti kalah. Kalau mana-mana parti lain BN tanding, there is at least a fighting chance if not pun harapan cerah.
Do a swap. BN will take PAS. Pakatan can have the MCA!
source : helen ang's blog