A murky future for Anwar and Pakatan
THE political future of Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is in question after a High Court rejected on Tuesday his repeated request to have sodomy charges against him quashed.With the court ordering him to stand trial for allegedly having consensual anal sex with his former aide Mohd Saiful Azlan, 24, the fluctuating fortunes of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition that he leads is also in question because of the potential loss of a charismatic leader that Anwar is.
The nightmare of 1998 has returned for the former deputy prime minister.
That year Anwar was charged with corruption and later with sodomy and jailed a total of 15 years.
He spent five years on the first conviction but was acquitted in 2004 on the sodomy charge.
The sodomy charge carries a jail term of 20 years, something that is truly outlandish for consensual sex.
But that’s the law and while Anwar has vowed to fight “every inch” of the new charge, the political impact of a potential guilty sentence could be devastating to his career and ambition to be Prime Minister.
Anwar is confident that the “facts and evidence” are on his side but the prosecution has told the court that they possess enough “DNA and other oral evidence” to back the charge.
The potential revelations aside, a long trial would be politically exhaustive and divert Anwar’s attention from leading the Pakatan Rakyat, to saving himself.
At the same time, he has to lead his own squabbling PKR and worse, fight a resurgent Umno out to regain grounds lost in 2008.
All of Anwar’s plans since the sterling performance of March last year have failed to show results.
The hugely hyped Sept 16 ploy did not materialise. Instead he lost Perak and his supporters are defecting to Barisan in other states.
His dream of hitching a ride on Sabah and Sarawak MPs to Putrajaya has stalled after individuals he had trusted to carry out the plan all failed him miserably.
Soon after the sodomy allega-tion surfaced last year, Anwar tried but failed to persuade the government of former Prime Minister Tun Abdullah Badawi to not charge him.
After he was charged, an angry Anwar took the case to the court of public opinion, both here and abroad, where he won considerable sympathy for his claims that the charges were politically motivated and a conspiracy to stop him from becoming Prime Minister.
The sympathy bubble burst when the Sept 16 ploy failed to take off, leaving Anwar flustered and with little option but to try and quash the sodomy charges.
His team of top-notch lawyers went to work filing numerous summonses, appeals and counter appeals in the past nine months.
They had relied on two arguments in their quest – alleged conspiracy and mala fide on the part of the Attorney-General against Anwar and medical reports that say there were no “conclusive evidence” of anal penetration.
The trial, when it starts, will give the public a window into a high profile case but Pakatan leaders are already worrying on the possible impact, especially with a general election by 2013.
While some Pakatan leaders are hoping the trial would see the coalition gaining public sympathy and getting political mileage, others are more realistic, saying Anwar’s popularity is declining and a long trial would damage his status and aggravate the decline.
“We fear the Pakatan Rakyat will suffer if Anwar is found guilty and jailed,” said a DAP leader. “We are working on plans if this happens. There will be a successor to take over if this happens.”
The search for a possible successor is already on.
Among the names mentioned are Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, Datuk Seri Nizar Jamaluddin, Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Umno stalwart Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, if he ever crosses over.
USM political scientist Dr Sivamurugan Pandyan said the threat the trial poses to Pakatan’s future is very real.
“Anwar is without doubt Pakatan’s unifying leader and up to now, nobody in Pakatan can match his experience and political acumen. Pakatan would suffer without him.
“That’s why Pakatan had better start grooming a replacement before it is too late,” he said.
source : the star
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