The Political Situation On The Peninsula And Anwar Ibrahim's Narrowing Options.

OutSyed The Box

Saturday, June 2, 2018

The Political Situation On The Peninsula And Anwar Ibrahim's Narrowing Options.

As a political movement the Barisan Nasional is effectively dead. 

But the components MCA, MIC, Gerakan and UMNO are not yet finished.  

Besides being political parties they are also huge business and property owners. 

MIC is believed to be worth about a billion in property and corporate assets and is also believed to have close to a billion Ringgit in cash.

MCA is believed to have much more, especially their cash holdings. At least two or three billion cash, (so I heard lah).  

Gerakan is not too far off.  Both MCA and Gerakan have property holdings overseas as well. These are political parties worth billions of Ringgit.  

So although (for the first time in history)  MIC has 100% more Parliamentary seats than MCA (2 to 1),  MCA is not dead as a business and money entity.  

Taking care of their assets alone will be enough to keep the party presidents of MIC, MCA and Gerakan busy for a long time. 

I think there is no need to talk about UMNO's assets. 
The PWTC alone should be worth over a billion Ringgit.

Talk is right now inside UMNO there are three factions.  

Two are extremely weak and they have been betting on the wrong horse.  

The first of the two factions is Zahid Hamidi and Hishamuddin Hussein. 

The second one is Khairy Jamaluddin plus one or two more.

Both these weak factions are pro Anwar Ibrahim or have no qualms working with Anwar Ibrahim.  Here Zahid Hamidi seems to be front runner ahead of Khairy Jamaluddin.

They are said to be the weakest factions because the majority of UMNO does not want them.  

The vast majority in UMNO do not want Zahid Hamidi, Hisham Onn or Khairy Jamaluddin to be their leaders. 

Both these factions are aware of this. 

Hence the order has gone out that there shall be no contests for the top posts in UMNO.  Again.

But rumour is Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah may take a shot at UMNO's presidency again. Meaning he will be gunning for Zahid Hamidi. 

Also that Mohamed Hassan (ex MB Negeri Sembilan) wants a crack at Timbalan Presiden, to unseat Hisham Onn.

So there should be some fireworks in UMNO by end June 2018.

Anyway the third and the most powerful group inside UMNO is the group that really matters for now.  
This group is now leaderless but they share  very strong common motivations. 

This most powerful group (it is also the largest) does not like Najib,  they do not like Anwar Ibrahim, Zahid Hamidi and Khairy Jamaluddin. 

They support Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed and as more time passes their support is turning into genuine adoration for Tun Dr Mahathir.

So the BN and UMNO are politically quite dead. They are of little effect in their present condition. 

If Zahid Hamidi becomes party president  UMNO will be in the tong sampah and forgotten by the time of the next elections.

If Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah wins the presidency of UMNO, the equation will change completely. For everyone. Do read on.


Then we come to the Pakatan Harapan. The DAP, Amanah and Pribumi Bersatu are strong. United. The three parties are also very comfortable with each other.  The membership for PPBM is increasing. More people are signing up as PPBM members. 

PKR is facing some serious internal stresses. Just like UMNO, there are at least three factions inside PKR.  

The Anwar Ibrahim family plus Rafizi Ramli is one faction.  

But I believe cracks are developing even inside this faction.  

Secondly there is the Azmin Ali faction. This is a very powerful faction on account of Azmin's good track record in managing Selangor so well over two terms.  

Here is some inside news folks. I heard that  Azmin Ali was actually offered the opportunity of being Pakatan Harapan's candidate for Prime Minister. Not Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.  However, quite predictably the Brader objected strongly to this suggestion.  Hence the lot fell on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed again.

Azmin Ali has now been made Minister of Economic Affairs in the Federal Cabinet.  He is also still holding the Menteri Besar Selangor portfolio.  

This is a very special situation enjoyed by Azmin - Federal Minister as well as Menteri Besar of Selangor.  (Lim Guan Eng - do take note). 

Azmin's deal is that he gets to appoint his own candidate to replace him as Menteri Besar of Selangor. 

This is a major slap for the Anwar Ibrahim camp who have their own candidate lined up as well.  (You can have tea with the Sultan of Selangor or you can have tea at home too.)

The other point to note about Azmin is that for the first time TWO of PKR's Cabinet Ministers ie Azmin Ali and Zuraida something come from Azmin's  Gombak division of PKR.   In short, Azmin Ali carries some real heavy  weight in PKR and Pakatan Harapan.  

There is a third faction in PKR but I forget who they are. Not very significant.  So there are serious stresses inside PKR which can crack up the party anytime.

And above all this is Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.  Although Tun Dr Mahathir's PPBM won only 12 seats in Parliament, Tun Dr Mahathir himself is worth 100 Parliamentary seats (12 + 100 = 112 which is the simple majority needed to form the government). Because without Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed, the Pakatan Harapan will just unwind.

There is no written  agreement that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed will step down after TWO years. Tun has said that he will stay as long as necessary to put things right.

Tun Dr Mahathir said that it would take at least two years for him to make things right again.  

My view is this.  The economy is already responding positively to the change in government. The Stock Market is active again. Never measure the government's economic management by the performance of the Stock Market.  But n'theless the Stock Market is a barometer of how the economy is performing or is expected to perform. 

If Dr Mahathir can put things back together again, the GDP growth improves, unemployment goes down, the economy moves forward and the country as a whole is happy then why should the country be handed over to a lacklustre performer like Anwar Ibrahim? Surely that will be a very careless and reckless thing to do.  So I really dont know about this HAND OVER POWER IN TWO YEARS thing. 

If Anwar Ibrahim wants to be PM he also has to overcome a few prerequisites. 

First he has to win a Parliamentary seat. This means he will have to make another Kajang Move, which turned out to be a huge bungle anyway.  Also this time around there is no guarantee that Anwar can win a Parliamentary seat  in a By Election.  There are forces inside PKR who may not fully support him.  So there is no guarantee yet.

Secondly, there is no written agreement among the Pakatan Harapan that Anwar shall become the PM.  The PKR only won 49  Parliamentary seats - obviously because of Tun Dr Mahathir.  

There is no written agreement that PPBM, DAP or Amanah will support Anwar for PM.  Plus it is no great big secret that Warisan in Sabah (with eight Parliamentary seats and an entire State government)  also support Pakatan Harapan. But they do not exactly 'support'  Anwar Ibrahim.  Which is why Anwar has not been invited for tea in Sabah yet. 

The Sarawak Chief Minister Abang Johari was recently spotted visiting Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed.  Sarawak too will support the Pakatan Harapan. That is easily another 19 Parliamentary seats.  And they do not support Anwar either.

To form the government and be the Prime Minister, you need 112 seats minimum.  This is where Anwar Ibrahim may not have the numbers to support him.

Should Anwar then do a joint venture with UMNO / BN and PAS? There is a WhatsApp message going viral since Friday that says exactly this. Part of the message says:


*Kerajaan Baru Selepas Julai 2018*

Semakin kuat desas desus pembentukan Kerajaan Perpaduan PKR + BN + PAS. 

UMNO mengadakan pemilihan 30 Jun ini dan selepas itu akan berwajah baru.

Persetujuan dgn 'kuasa yg lebih besar' telah menetapkan jawatan spt berikut :

*PERDANA MENTERI*  : DS ANWAR IBRAHIM

*TIMBALAN PERDANA MENTERI 1 & 2* :  TG HADI AWANG dan DS ZAHID HAMIDI

Gabungan tiga parti akan bentuk 143 kerusi iaitu 47 PKR + 78 BN + 18 PAS = 143 

Untuk btk kerajaan hanya perlu 112 kerusi.

Maka jatuhlah Mahatder, Daeim dan kroni-kroninya 

Agenda licik DAP terhadap Malaysia pun akan tersungkur.

Akan ada ahli parlimen BN/PKR/PAS yg tak setuju tp diyakini cukup utk 112 kerusi.

DS Anwar, DS Zahid dan TG Haji Hadi akan bertemu di Makkah menunaikan umrah

Jelajah DS Anwar mengadap sultan melayu  hampir selesai

Gabungan tiga parti ini lebih mewakili komposisi kaum Malaysia. 

Tidak seperti PH yg diwakili 66 org YB bukan islam dan hanya 58 YB muslim.

So the thing that was predicted by that Chinese girl blogger some years ago is a possibility.  It will be UMNO + PKR + PAS. 

Well, maybe not.  It is possible that any 'gabungan' with UMNO and PAS may split Anwar's own PKR party.  

Here is another piece of trivia. 

Of PKR's 49 MPs, only 13 are Malay.  
33 of PKR's MPs are non Malay, majority of them being Chinese.  

They may not agree to Anwar teaming up with UMNO / BN / PAS.

Even the Azmin camp will not agree to teaming up with UMNO / BN / PAS.

So it is the PKR party which may split.  

There are many obstacles or challenges before Anwar Ibrahim can make it to Prime Minister.

Ok now here is the real story.  

Before that,   to all the Anwar Ibrahim supporters, dont get too upset ok. 

Please grow up.  You must become more mature.  

If anyone wants to be PM, then everyone else, including me, has the right to scrutinise them closely. We should. 

In fact you should be thankful that there are people out there who can see, observe, understand and analyse the situation for you.  

This is about the Prime Minister and the future of our country. 
This is not about the  tingling feelings inside  your ass. 

I criticise anything or anyone who I think ought to be criticised.  

For example Ayahanda Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed has appointed Maszlee Malik as Education Minister.  But I have criticised Dr Maszlee's jihadi credentials for Education Minister.  This is despite me being perhaps the strongest supporter of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamed (except for Proton).  

Ayahanda is a great man.

  
His stature is far far above any one particular critic.  
And he does not shy away from criticism.   

Of course I never call Dr Mahathir  a 'Liwat fellow'  because he did not liwat any guy.  

So do chill ok.  

You have the freedom to criticise Dr Mahathir, me or whoever. 

I really do not care. 

Please extend the same courtesy to others. 

Can or cannot?

Can support freedom of the media or cannot?

Back to Anwar,  he is extremely disadvantaged in his education and his knowledge.  Tahu bunyi, tau warna, klin tong,  klen tong - sudah graduate kut. 

Despite almost 20 years in UMNO and the government, Anwar never achieved anything of substance for Malaysia. 

He messed up the education system and imported the failed and disastrous Muslim Brotherhood's ideas (Ikhwan Muslimeen) into the country. Too many people in this country have become "unintelligent" because of that really stupid influence. 

Now, predictably Anwar has gone back to being a name dropper. 

In his interviews and speeches he keeps dropping names like Sun Tzu, Yusuf Qardawi, Ben Nabi, Adam Smith, etc etc.  

Anwar Ibrahim supporters,  you should tell him that this childish behaviour of name dropping is more relevant for a high school student writing essays to earn marks.  Not for a Prime Minister.  

In a recent interview on Awani (a few days ago) they asked Anwar a question about the economy.  He mentioned Adam Smith pula  !!  Apa kena mengena brader?  

Kalau nak jadi Prime Minister,  you must provide your own answers, give us your own ideas, tell us your own solutions.

For example,  how is Anwar Ibrahim going to handle the issue of the SST, which will replace the GST?  Give us some solutions, give us some suggestions, give us some new thinking.  Do you know what SST stands for?  Why should you give some solutions?  Because you are the one who wants to be Prime Minister doh!  Not me.

Anwar Ibrahim supporters, maybe you can ask your hero to provide some answers.

Sun Tzu tak tahu pasal SST. 
Adam Smith pun tak tahu pasal SST. 
Yusuf Qardawi tahu pasal unta kut.  
Malik Ben Nabi pula saya pun tak tahu apa dia tahu.

So stop dropping these useless names and give us real solutions.  

But Anwar will not be able to provide any solutions.  
This is his biggest problem. 

His  knowledge base  is very limited.

  
To cover up,  he simply pretends to know.  

The only reason Anwar can fool so many people is because indeed so many people are fools. Thats you folks. Yes you. You are the fools.

Before, when Anwar was in governemnt, he could say anything he wanted. That was the time when he controlled the media. The newspapers, TV, radio projected his image to the sky.  He fell upon race and religion.  He became the Muslim Brotherhood's man in Malaysia (the Ikhwan Muslimin).  

The Ikhwan provided him with all the academic and intellectual back up for him to feel sufficient. Little did he know that the Ikhwan itself was a bankrupt ideology that was headed for disaster. (This has since come true with the Arab Spring of 2011, now becoming the Arab Hell.)

Then Anwar got kicked out in 1998,  went to jail and became the permanent victim. The victim of conspiracy, victim of a black eye, victim of Najib, just a victim of everyone and every thing.  His punch like was simple :  "Justice for me. I am a victim."  Hence his party was named 'Keadilan'.  Justice.  

There was no need for Anwar to formulate any policies or any vision for the nation. He did not have to provide any real solutions.

But now he is on the inside loop. His good wife is the Deputy PM.  (May I state my admiration for Dr Wan Azizah's stirling example of the dutiful wife who endured so much so patiently  in her life). Now Anwar is no more the victim. He has to provide the solutions - for a nation of 32 million people.  

This is where the brader has the foggiest idea.  So  we are going to hear more Adam Smith, Sun Tzu, Yusuf Qardawi, Ben Nabi, Hassan Banna and such.  He must appear to sound intelligent. 

Repeat this to your friends folks, because this is a true statement : Anwar Ibrahim does not say anything profound.  

Monday comes after Sunday. 
Then Tuesday comes after Monday.   
Adam Smith went to work on a Monday morning. 
Sunday was his day off.  
Thats about it.

This is where time is NOT on Anwar's side.  Not only is Tun Dr Mahathir in charge but there is the steady hand of Tun Daim Zainuddin at the Council of Elders. The country is already in good hands.

Lim Guan Eng as Chief Minister of Penang knows a thing or two about managing an economy.  So does Azmin Ali who is now the Economic Affairs Minister. Azmin too would have built up his expertise in managing the country's economic affairs.

As time passes, these younger leaders will begin to consolidate their positions and even begin to shine.  Let us hope so.  Because we really need dynamic leadership. 

In such an event Anwar Ibrahim will just fade away into the background.  With his Adam Smith quotes, Sun Tzu, Malik Ben Nabi, Yusuf Qardawi and other really not relevant  sound bytes.

Anwar Ibrahim knows this very well.  That is why he cannot afford to wait for TWO years.  They say that one week is too long in politics.  TWO YEARS  will be fatal for his chances at becoming PM.

Anwar Ibrahim has no choice but to move now to become PM.  

If he does not make his move now,  there will never be another chance for him.

There is also another HUGE unknown. 

What if Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah runs for the UMNO presidency and wins it? 

That will change the equation entirely.  Completely. 

PPBM + PKR + DAP + Amanah + Hindraaf + Tengku Razaleigh's UMNO Terbaru = ?? 

I think I will hear the phone ringing soon.